Sri Lankan shares edge up from 1-yr low on foreign buying

Reuters: Sri Lankan shares edged up on Friday from a more than one-year closing low as foreign investors picked up battered shares in a market that had already factored in a monetary policy tightening by the central bank, dealers said.

The central bank raised its benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points on Friday for the first time in eight months to contain high inflationary expectations and a possible acceleration of demand side inflationary pressures.

The Colombo stock index closed 0.3 percent up at 5,996.28, edging up from its lowest close since March 15, 2016 hit on Thursday. The index breached a key psychological barrier of 6,000 on Wednesday.

"Foreigners are buying in the 'oversold' market and are looking at the long term," said Yohan Samarakkody, head of research at SC Securities.

"Rate hike was already factored in," Samarakkody said, adding that some investors were expecting a larger hike.

Turnover stood at 1.92 billion rupees ($12.7 million), more than double this year's daily average of 671 million rupees.

The index had lost 2.1 percent through Thursday since March 7, when the IMF called for monetary policy tightening if credit growth or inflation do not abate.

The bourse rose to "neutral" territory from "oversold", with the 14-day relative strength index at 30.480 points versus Thursday's 24.614, Thomson Reuters data showed. A level between 30 and 70 indicates the market is neutral.

Foreign investors net bought shares worth 551.1 million rupees, raising the year-to-date net foreign inflow to 3.81 billion rupees in equities.

Shares in Ceylon Tobacco Company Plc rose 3.9 percent, while Commercial leasing and Fiance Plc jumped 8 percent. 

($1 = 151.4000 Sri Lankan rupees) 

(Reporting by Ranga Sirilal; Editing by Amrutha Gayathri)

Sri Lanka Monetary Policy Review – March 2017 - Policy rates increased by 25 points

As per the provisional estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the Sri Lankan economy grew by 4.4 per cent in real terms during 2016 compared to the growth of 4.8 per cent in 2015. Within this annual growth, Industry related activities grew notably by 6.7 per cent driven by construction related activities, while Services related activities grew by 4.2 per cent mainly with the expansion of financial services, insurance and telecommunications. However, Agriculture related activities contracted by 4.2 per cent in 2016, impacted by supply side disruptions on account of floods in the second quarter and drought conditions during the final quarter of 2016. In spite of challenging external factors such as adverse weather conditions and global developments, an acceleration of growth was observed towards end 2016 with the last quarter of 2016 recording a growth of 5.3 per cent, partly supported by the base effect.

In the meantime, headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year change in the Colombo Consumers’ Price Index (CCPI, 2013=100), accelerated to 6.8 per cent in February 2017 from 5.5 per cent in January 2017. A similar trend was observed in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100) based headline inflation, which rose to 8.2 per cent (year-on-year) in February 2017 from 6.5 per cent in January 2017. Year-on-year core inflation based on both CCPI and NCPI also remained high at 7.1 per cent in February 2017. The recent acceleration in inflation is largely due to the impact of prevailing drought conditions and adjustments to the tax structure, and it is projected that inflation would revert to the desired mid single digit levels in the period ahead and stablise thereafter, unless disrupted by adverse inflation expectations.

The earlier tightening of monetary policy and monetary conditions by the Central Bank and the resultant increase in market interest rates are likely to have impacted the growth of credit to the private sector by commercial banks to some extent. Accordingly, the year-on-year growth of private sector credit decelerated further to 20.9 per cent in January 2017 from 21.9 per cent at end 2016. Meanwhile, credit to the public sector increased noticeably, causing year-on-year broad money (M2b) growth to remain high at 17.7 per cent in January 2017, although this was a deceleration compared to 18.4 per cent in December 2016. Nevertheless, the deceleration in monetary and credit aggregates has been slower than expected.

On the external front, the deficit in the trade account of the balance of payments (BOP) was recorded at US dollars 9.1 billion in 2016 compared to US dollars 8.4 billion in 2015, with expenditure on imports increasing by 2.5 per cent and earnings from exports contracting by 2.2 per cent during the year. Provisional data for January 2017 also indicated a widening of the trade deficit. Earnings from tourism and workers’ remittances continued to cushion the adverse impact of the trade deficit on the BOP. In the meantime, outflows of foreign investments from the government securities market observed in early 2017 appear to have subsided, and marginal inflows have been experienced in spite of the increase in policy interest rates in the United States. Gross official reserves were estimated at US dollars 5.6 billion at end February 2017 compared to US dollars 6.0 billion at end 2016, while the Sri Lankan rupee depreciated by 1.2 per cent against the US dollar during the year up to 22 March 2017.

Considering the above developments, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 23 March 2017, was of the view that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary as a precautionary measure, in order to contain the build-up of adverse inflation expectations and the possible acceleration of demand side inflationary pressures through excessive monetary and credit expansion. The Monetary Board also took into account the notable improvements in fiscal operations, which have resulted in the overall budget deficit in 2016 declining to envisaged levels. The Board was of the view that these improvements, together with the substantial upward movements already observed in market interest rates, have reduced the required adjustment in policy interest rates. Accordingly, the Monetary Board decided to increase the key policy interest rates of the Central Bank, namely the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) by 25 basis points each, to 7.25 per cent and 8.75 per cent, respectively, with effect from 24 March 2017.