Wednesday, 30 December 2015

Ten Southeast Asian countries to launch single market

With over 600 million people, ASEAN's potential market is larger than the European Union or North America.

The center of global economic gravity is shifting toward Asia. Within Asia, it is shifting toward the two giant economies of the People's Republic of China and India. Their emergence as economic superpowers suggests that "economic size" bestows significant advantage in accelerating growth and fostering development.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is in the process of creating a single market and production base, called the ASEAN Economic Community, which will allow the free flow of goods, services, investments, and skilled labor, and the freer movement of capital across the region. This is envisioned to be in place by 31 December 2015.

If ASEAN were one economy, it would be seventh largest in the world with a combined gross domestic product of $2.4 trillion in 2013. It could be fourth largest by 2050 if growth trends continue. Source: Speech by ADB Vice-President Stephen Groff. 2014. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany.

With over 600 million people, ASEAN's potential market is larger than the European Union or North America. Next to the People's Republic of China and India, ASEAN has the world's third largest labor force that remains relatively young. Source: Speech by ADB Vice-President Stephen Groff. 2014. Berlin, Federal Republic of Germany. ASEAN is one of the most open economic regions in the world, with total merchandise exports of over $1.2 trillion - nearly 54% of total ASEAN GDP and 7% of global exports.

ASEAN is taking a more cautious approach to regional economic integration than Europe. In Asia, there is currently no serious consideration of a single currency.

The ASEAN Economic Community is founded on four basic initiatives: creating a single market and production base; increasing competitiveness; promoting equitable economic development; and further integrating ASEAN with the global economy.

ASEAN's physical infrastructure is critical to the ASEAN Economic Community's goal of establishing a single market and production base.

Cross-border roads, power lines, railways and maritime development will help propel the community forward. This will boost existing and new value chains or production networks.

One of the challenges to the ASEAN Economic Community is bridging the perceived "development divide" between the older and economically more advanced members - Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, known as the ASEAN-6, and the four newer members - Cambodia (1999), Lao People's Democratic Republic (1997), Myanmar (1997), and Viet Nam (1995). Some analysts believe that the ASEAN Economic Community will miss its December 2015 deadline because of the challenging requirements of economic integration, including changes to domestic laws and in some cases constitutional changes.

The flexibility that characterizes ASEAN cooperation, the celebrated "ASEAN way," may hand member states a convenient pretext for noncompliance, according to one ADB report. How to enforce the accords remains an issue. Currently, the economic integration commitments lack sufficient mechanisms to ensure compliance.

ASEAN needs a plan beyond the ASEAN Economic Community to achieve the long-term development aspirations of its 10 member countries, according to an ADB study. This includes introducing structural reforms nationally and taking bold actions regionally to further deepen economic integration. ADBI. 2014

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