Tuesday 11 February 2014

RAM reaffirms Tokyo Cement Company’s ratings at A/P2

RAM Ratings Lanka has reaffirmed Tokyo Cement Company (Lanka) PLC’s (“the Company”) respective long and short-term corporate credit ratings at A and P2; the long-term rating carries a stable outlook. The ratings are upheld by its sizable market share and sound financial profile.

Meanwhile, the ratings are moderated by its inability to immediately pass on cost increases to the customer, its dependence on the cyclical construction sub-sector as well as its short term funding mismatch.


Incorporated in 1982, Tokyo Cement was listed on the Colombo Stock Exchange in 1984. 

The Company and its subsidiaries are primarily involved in the manufacture and sale of cement, to both retail customers and large projects. One of its subsidiaries, Tokyo Cement Power Lanka Ltd. is expected to supply electricity to the Ceylon Electricity Board. (Tokyo Cement and its subsidiaries are collectively known as the Group.)

Tokyo Cement and other local cement manufacturers in Sri Lanka together catered to a large portion of the domestic demand for cement in 2012. The rest was met by other industry players, which distribute imported cement. Tokyo Cement, as the sole operator at the port of Trincomalee, enjoys better access to the northern and eastern regions of the country than its competitors.

The Group’s financial profile remained sound in fiscal 2013. Its gearing ratio continued to improve in FY Mar 2013, standing at 0.34 times at the end of the period (end-FY Mar 2012: 0.46 times). This is mainly attributable to the Group’s efforts in trimming its borrowings, supported by its strong cash flow; the ratio remained in line with those of its similarly rated peers.

That said, the Group’s gearing levels are expected to increase over the medium term due to its planned capital expenditure. Notably, Tokyo Cement’s debt-protection metrics have expanded in line with its improved cash flow and reduced debt burden. 

Its annualised funds from operations (FFO) debt coverage clocked in at 1.52 times as at end-1Q FY Mar 2014 (end-FY Mar 2013: 1.09 times) while its annualised operating cashflow (OCF) debt coverage surged to 3.90 times (end-FY Mar 2013: 1.97 times).

Its coverage levels are envisaged to moderate over the medium term, in line with its rising gearing levels.

“However, we note that Tokyo Cement is a price taker as all local cement players are compelled to adhere to the retail price cap set by the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL). 

This has restricted the Group’s ability to immediately pass on cost increases to end-consumers. As such, its profit margins will be constrained until a price increase is approved by the regulators,” RAM said.

“This is reflected by the decline in its margin on operating profit before depreciation, interest and tax (OPBDIT) to 9.33% in FY Mar 2013 (FY Mar 2012: 10.17%) – a result of a 5-month delay in receiving the Consumer Affairs Authority of Sri Lanka’s (CAASL) nod for a price increase following the rupee’s depreciation,” it added.

Given that the construction sub-sector largely depends on the GOSL’s infrastructure development projects, RAM opines that this cyclical and seasonal sub-sector is highly susceptible to economic cycles. As such, local cement players could enjoy better performances during booms and experience slowdowns amid recessionary conditions in view of their strong correlation with the sub-sector. Further, Tokyo Cement’s reliance on short-term borrowings remained substantial at Rs. 1.67 billion in 1Q FY Mar 2014, accounting for around 65% of its total debt.

Although the Group’s cash and cash equivalents (CCE) to short-term debt coverage had improved slightly to 0.27 times as at end-FY Mar 2013 (end-FY Mar 2012: 0.16 times) amid its debt-reduction efforts, this is expected to moderate over the medium term due to its planned capital expenditure. That said, in the event that the Company’s performance improves going forward positive rating action may be taken.
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Hayleys 9 Months revenue up by 9%


Sri Lanka gilt dealer begins trading listed debt

Feb 11, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's first gilt dealer has begun trading listed corporate debt in the Colombo Stock Exchange kicking off a process that could improve liquidity and secondary trading, officials said.

Capital Alliance Ltd (CAL), a primary dealer in government securities became the first firm to trade as a dealer-broker Tuesday, under new rules allowing primary dealers in Treasury bills to trade in debt listed on the CSE.

On Tuesday the firm bought listed debt from a client to its own account giving liquidity to market.

"With the surge in corporate debt issuances in the year 2013, the next step in the cycle will be the development of a vibrant secondary market," Gihan Hemachandra, chief executive of Capital Alliance said.

"In this regard, CAL is confident that it can use its financial strength as a Primary Dealer in order to make-a-market in corporate debt.

"The success of the Government Securities market is the dealer driven system it follows. We are confident that the same model can be successfully extended to the Corporate Debt space as well."

Trading in listed corporate debt has been intermittent with few bids coming on the system for debenture holders seeking to exit.

Listed corporate debt owners sometimes have to sell at steep discounts to exit, though there have been more transactions over the past year.

Unlike a broker who will quote price when there is an actual buyer or a seller, a dealer will quote a two way price on its own account creating a market for others to buy or sell a security.

Hemachandra says CAL is already providing two way quotes for its clients for six securities and will also offer them on the trading system soon.

Niroshan Wijesundere, head of market development at Colombo Stock Exchange said in 2013, 68.2 billion rupees of debt was issued.

The Securities and Exchange Commission and CSE encouraged primary dealers in Treasury bills were encouraged to get permission to trade corporate debt on the exchange.

"Though this process we intend secondary trading to increase," Wijesundere, said.

CAL was the first primary dealer to get approval and start trading.

"While this market is in its very early stages and we are bound to face lot of hurdles in terms of technical and other aspects we think this market will have a much larger secondary market in 2014," Hemachandra said.

An earlier attempt to promote secondary trading through CSE's DEX system failed partly due to high brokerage and fees as well as some operational procedures that were not compatible with debt trading.

Dealers however do not depend on brokerage commission for survival but can instead make profits from interest rate fluctuations.

Under the current system brokerage is negotiable but there were some problems that needed to be ironed out to boost trading, industry specialists have said.

At the moment trading fees are charge on yield which means a trading a 4-year security incurs fees four times that of a one year security, discouraging trading on longer tenor instruments.

There was also no process yet to facilitate repurchase (repo) transactions on corporate debt on the system, involving a notional sale and buy back. Under the current trading system an actual sale has to take place.

Such transactions are needed to fund a portfolio cost-effectively. A part of the dealing process involves trading on the yield curve and short-term funding is used to buy and hold securities of a longer tenor.

Sri Lankan shares edge up; foreign investors continue to exit

Feb 11 (Reuters) - Sri Lankan shares recovered from a one-month closing low hit in the prior session on heavy volume, snapping a five-day losing streak, led by hospitality sector, but foreign investors continued to dump risky assets as part of a selloff in emerging markets.

The main stock index edged up 0.05 percent, or 2.88 points, to end at 6,113.15, recovering from its lowest close since Jan. 10 hit in the previous session. It lost 2.2 percent in the last five sessions through Monday.

Foreign investors sold net 884.9 million rupees ($6.77 million) worth of shares on Tuesday as the bourse suffered foreign outflow for a fourth straight session, extending the net foreign selling to 4.6 billion rupees in the last four sessions.

Analysts said the foreign selloff in the emerging markets was the reason for the exit of some offshore funds with profits.

Top conglomerate John Keells Holdings, which led the foreign selling, lost 1.79 percent to 224.80 rupees.

The bourse has seen 3.22 billion rupees of foreign outflow so far in 2014, after enjoying a net inflow of 22.88 billion rupees last year.

Shares in Aitken Spence Hotel Holdings Plc gained 2.71 percent to 72.00 rupees measured on a weighted average, while Cargills (Ceylon) Plc rose 2.3 percent to 151.00 rupees.

Analysts said investors have been waiting for directions from December-quarter earnings and an upcoming UNHRC session in March where Sri Lanka is facing a US-sponsored resolution for alleged human rights violations.

Stockbrokers said investors will shrug off political risks from renewed pressure by the United States to bring a fresh resolution against Sri Lanka at the UNHRC meeting in March, because the market had been expecting the worst.

They said local investors are active in the market after interest rates on treasury bills eased to multi-year lows, making fixed-income assets unattractive.

The index has risen 3.39 percent so far this year, following a 4.8 percent gain in 2013. It fell in the previous two years.

The day's turnover was 1.98 billion rupees, well above this year's daily average of about 1.26 billion rupees. The market has witnessed an average 1.71 billion rupees in the last seven sessions which analysts attributed to active local investment funds and institutional investors. 


($1 = 130.7500 Sri Lanka rupees) 

(Reporting by Shihar Aneez and Ranga Sirilal; Editing by Anand Basu)

Sri Lanka stocks close higher

Feb 11, 2014 (LBO) – Sri Lanka stocks end slightly higher Tuesday with tobacco stocks gaining amid strong foreign selling, brokers said.

The Colombo benchmark All Share Price Index closed 2.88 points higher at 6,113.15, up 0.05 percent. The S&P SL20 closed 5.08 points lower at 3,349.35, down 0.15 percent.

Turnover was 1.98 billion rupees, up from 1.32 billion rupees a day earlier, with stocks of 84 firms closing in the red against 85 gainers.

JKH closed 4.10 rupees lower at 224.80 rupees with a massive 1.11 billion rupees of off market transaction contributing to 56 percent of the turnover.

The aggregate value of all off market deals accounted for 72 percent of the daily market turnover.

JKH’s W0022 warrants closed 1.20 rupees lower at 63.20 rupees and its W0023 warrants closed 1.90 rupees lower at 65.10 rupees, attracting most number of trades during the day.

Foreigners bought 320 million rupees worth shares while selling 1,205 million rupees of shares.

Ceylon Tobacco Company closed 13.40 rupees higher at 1,260.40 rupees and Cargills Ceylon closed 3.40 rupees higher at 151.00 rupees, contributing most to the index gain.

Nestle Lanka ended 10 cents lower at 2,100.00 rupees and Bukit Darah ended 3.40 rupees higher at 604.00 rupees.

Distilleries closed 1.60 rupees higher at 215.60 rupees and Carson Cumberbatch ended 20 cents lower at 357.00 rupees.

Sri Lanka bank consolidation beneficial: Fitch

Feb 11, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's plan to consolidate banks, could bring long term benefits and greater system stability, Fitch Ratings said.

The consolidation master plan envisaged the creation of bigger banks, with an asset base of over 1,000 million rupees.

"Only one bank met this threshold at end-September 2013," Fitch Ratings said.

"The government intends these institutions to be able to eventually establish a regional presence and improve overall access to funds."

There was prospect of mergers of other seven banks that did not meet the threshold. If successfully implanted with Basle III standards, the international standing of banks would be boosted, Fitch said.

Non bank financial institutions, which are about 7 percent of financial system assets are expected to be cut to 20 from the current 58.

"Consolidation benefits for the NBFIs include enhanced capital buffers, the ability to attract cheaper and longer-term funding, and improved cost efficiencies," Fitch said.

"If realised, these benefits should support the credit profile of the NBFI sector more broadly in light of its lending focus on sub-prime customer segments.

"The reduced number of institutions would also improve regulatory oversight."

The full statement is reproduced below:-

Fitch: Sri Lanka Bank Consolidation Beneficial in the Long Term

Fitch Ratings-Colombo/Singapore-10 February 2014: Sri Lanka's plan to bring about financial sector consolidation is a strong statement of intent of raising systemic stability and boosting long-term economic development, says Fitch Ratings.

If effective, the "Master Plan for the Consolidation of the Financial Sector" should improve the credit profile of financial institutions, strengthen franchises, and reduce supervisory burden.

The top five banks already account for two-thirds of system assets, and the system could become more concentrated. The authorities wish to build up at least five major banks with an asset base of more than LKR1trn (USD7.7bn) within a "reasonable" period.

Only one bank met this threshold at end-September 2013. The government intends these institutions to be able to eventually establish a regional presence and improve overall access to funds. The Master Plan also sets a minimum asset size of LKR100bn for the remaining banks, which raises the prospect of further consolidation as seven domestic banks do not meet this threshold.

The authorities also envisage an enhancement of the role of foreign banks in the Sri Lankan economy, and the establishment of one large development bank to provide an impetus to policy-driven development banking activities in the country.

Plan execution is to be accompanied by strengthened regulation - including enhancements to minimum capital requirements - and the adoption of Basel III capital standards. If successfully implemented, these measures may even boost the overall position of Sri Lankan banks internationally.

The biggest impact in the near term will be felt across the NBFI sector, which accounts for just 7% of financial system assets, but where the central bank wants to sharply curtail the number of institutions from 58 to 20.

Consolidation benefits for the NBFIs include enhanced capital buffers, the ability to attract cheaper and longer-term funding, and improved cost efficiencies. If realised, these benefits should support the credit profile of the NBFI sector more broadly in light of its lending focus on sub-prime customer segments. The reduced number of institutions would also improve regulatory oversight.

The commitment of the authorities to NBFI consolidation is evident from their articulation of broad mechanisms and specific deadlines. It is underlined by the provision of tax, regulatory and concessional loans for the timely completion of valuations, accounting assessments, and other due diligence.

Much of the NBFI consolidation process is projected by officials to be driven by the acquisition of weaker and smaller institutions by their stronger counterparts, or by the banks, and largely completed by the end of this year, and no later than March 2015.

The central bank's Master Plan follows historical and recent instances of costly and painful failures at several finance companies and one private bank.

CSE’s net foreign outflow is not a matter to be concerned – Stockbrokers

Sri Lankan stockbrokers say the on going trend of net foreign selling, experienced in the Colombo bourse is not a matter to be worried and are confident that it will not continue for long.

“I believe some of the investors are taking profits as it is a good time to do so,” Ravi Abeysuriya, CEO of Candor Equities said.

He said the Fed tapering which came on the 29th of February coupled with the local perception leading up to Geneva Sessions is causing this outflow but remains confident about the local market.

“Those investors will come back in a big way after the market stabilizes”.

From the 30th January to 10th February, foreigners operating in the CSE have sold Rs. 3.8 billion worth of shares and have only purchased Rs. 1.2 billion of shares thus resulting in a net outflow of Rs. 2.6 billion during the said period.

“Investment Funds have been selling down from the emerging markets and we are experiencing a part of that”, said Prashan Fernando, CEO of Acuity Stock Brokers.

“A large outflow is unlikely,” Raja Senanayake, Head of research of Serendib Stock Brokers sounded.

From 30th January to 10th February, foreigners have sold off 10 million shares of JKH, 5.2 million shares of Commercial Bank and 57 million of Dialog shares.

3.9 million shares of Asia Asset and 1.2 million shares of Blue Diamonds have also been sold during this period.

In value terms Rs. 2.291 billions of JKH shares, Rs. 622 million of Commercial Bank shares and Rs. 528 billion of Dialog shares have been sold.

JKH, Dialog and ComBank shares are the three counters which have seen the biggest selling by foreign investors.

‘Despite the flow, you can see the foreign holdings of those shares have not changed much”, a stock analyst , who did not want to be quoted said.

During the reference period foreign holdings of JKH shares have just only gone down to 54.62-pct from 55.64-pct stake held as of 30th January.

In the case of Dialog Axiata, ownership has come down to just 91.28-pct from 91.98-pct.

“We have received over US$ 250 million as net foreign inflow to the CSE during the year 2013 and the little outflow taking place as of now is not an issue for us,” said Nandalal Weerasinghe, Deputy Governor of the Central Bank.

” Foriegn investors are free to take their money and this situation creates opportunities for others, who wants to buy big parcels”, he said.

Stock market players say the local market has strong potential going into the future.

“Local institutions and high net-worth investors are buying those stocks that have been sold, because the potential is there, ” said Ravi Abeysuriya.

Reporting by: Prasanna C. Rodrigo www.news360.lk

Union Bank keeps triple-B rating, outlook stable

RAM Ratings Lanka has reaffirmed the respective long- and short-term financial institution ratings of Union Bank of Colombo PLC (Union Bank or the Bank) at BBB and P3. The long-term rating carries a stable outlook.

"The ratings are supported by the group's average capitalization but tempered by its small stature, below average asset quality and performance," the ratings agency said in a statement.


"Incorporated in 1995, Union Bank is one of the smallest licensed commercial banks (LCB) in Sri Lanka, accounting for less than 1.00% LCB industry assets as at end-September 2013.

The Bank acquired The Finance and Guarantee Company Limited subsequently renamed UB Finance Company Limited (UB Finance) for LKR 600 million in November 2011. "UB Finance had faced financial strain under its previous ownership, resulting in its loan portfolio recording high delinquencies. The bank together with National Asset Management Limited (NAMAL) and UB Finance is referred to as 'the Group'. The Bank continues to account for the larger 93.54% of total assets of the group. Meanwhile, the group's main focus on lending is concentrated on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) that are relatively more susceptible to economic conditions.

"The group's asset quality is deemed below average as reflected in its asset quality indicators that compare weaker than industry peers' coupled with the lack of seasoning in its credit assets.

The group's asset base expanded a slower 18.83% y-o-y in fiscal 2012 to LKR 31.63 billion (fiscal 2011: LKR 26.62 billion) amid the credit ceiling placed by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) during the year.

"That said, growth picked up in 9M fiscal 2013 to 20.50% (annualized) in line with the expansion of credit assets supported by branch expansion. Meanwhile, on the back of less conducive macroeconomic conditions coupled with the reduction in gold prices impacting pawning, resulted in the bank's absolute non-performing loans (NPLs) increasing to LKR 1.98 billion as at end-9M FY December 2013 (end-FY December 2012: 1.40 billion) . The bulk of the new NPLs stemmed largely from the pawning segment followed by the construction segment.

"Subsequently, Union Bank's gross NPL ratio worsened to 6.93% as at end-September 2013 from 5.54% as at end-December 2012 comparing weaker than its industry peers'. On the same note, the Group's absolute NPLs increased to LKR 3.34 billion as at end-September 2013 from LKR 2.64 billion as at end-December 2012, where the subsidiary UB Finance accounted for around 41% of group's total NPLs as at end-September 2013 and only around 9% of the group's credit assets.

"Elsewhere, the group's gross NPL coverage weakened to 36.74% as at end-September 2013 from 50.34% as at end-December 2011 amidst the influx of new NPLs. Looking ahead, although we expect the improving macro economic conditions and increased focus by management on recoveries will assist the group to uphold its asset quality, our concerns hinge on the lack of seasoning of its credit assets and the continued exposure to the relatively risky SME segment, as such we expect the asset quality indicators to remain weaker than its LCB peers'. Further, we note any further deterioration in the group's asset quality may lead to downward rating action.

"The group's performance is viewed to be below average reflective of weaker than peers' performance indicators. The group's net interest income grew by 37.83% y-o-y in fiscal 2012 to LKR 1.41 billion largely reflective of the growth in its credit assets. However, during 9M fiscal 2013, net interest income contracted 4.79% (annualized) owing to increase in interest expense outpacing growth in interest income amidst increased amount of funds being channelled to investments in non-interest bearing unit trust investments in line with the bank's treasury management strategy.

"The rapid increase in interest expense was largely due to higher funding costs, reflective of the increased reliance on customer deposits in the funding mix as well as the drop in low cost current account and savings account (CASA) deposits in the customer deposit mix. Consequently, the group's net interest margin (NIM) weakened to 4.50% in 9M fiscal 2013 from 5.58% in fiscal 2012. Looking ahead, in the short-term, we expect the company's NIM to improve as funding costs ease as deposits re-price faster than loans amidst a receding interest rate environment. Meanwhile, the group's operating expenses increased 35.76% y-o-y to LKR 1.39 billion in FY December 2012 (FY December 2011: LKR 1.03 billion), increasing a further 15.33% (annualised) in 9M FY December 2013.

"The increase in operating expenses was largely due to branch expansion and larger workforce. Consequently, the Group's cost to income ratio moderated to 76.95% in 9M FY December 2013 from 70.22% in FY December 2011 comparing weaker than its industry peers'. Despite an increase in net interest income, the group's pre-tax profit reduced 4.45% y-o-y in fiscal 2012 largely reflective of the increase in operating costs during the year.

"Moreover, pre-tax profit reduced a further 37.56% (annualized) in 9M fiscal 2013 owing to increase in operating cost and impairment charges. Consequently, the group's return on assets (ROA) moderated to 0.83% in 9M fiscal 2013 from 1.55% in fiscal 2012 (fiscal 2011: 2.09%) comparing weaker than its industry peers'.

"Group's funding composition remained relatively unchanged in fiscal 2013. Customer deposits made up the bulk of its funding base, accounting for 80.31% of the mix as at end-September 2013. Deposits grew 19.55% y-o-y in fiscal 2012 & 25.62% (annualized) in 9M FY December 2013 supported by the extended branch reach and improving franchise.

"Meanwhile, the loans to deposits ratio improved from 94.70% as at end-December 2011 to 89.93% as at end-September 2013 reflective of the faster growth in deposit-base compared to credit assets.

"On a related note, Union Bank's liquidity is viewed to be average. As at end-September 2013, its statutory liquid asset ratio moderated to 21.64% from 23.10% as at end-December 2012 amid loan growth during the 9M FY December 2013. Nevertheless, the ratio is in line with peers'.

"Although the bank's capitalization levels are healthy with tier-1 and overall risk-weighted capital adequacy ratios (RWCARs) clocking at 17.34% and 16.33% respectively as at end-3Q FY December 2013, the group's capitalization levels are viewed to be Average. In line with the credit asset expansion, group's tier-1 and overall RWCAR moderated to 17.73% and 17.96% respectively as at end- FY December 2012 (end-FY December 2011: 21.32% & 21.55%), the ratios moderated further to 13.79% & 13.74% as at end-3Q FY December 2013 reflective of the expansion of credit assets as well as the consolidation of losses from Serendib Capital Limited in line with the adoption of SLFRS's resulting in reduction of the group's capital base. Nevertheless, the group's tier-1 and overall RWCAR compares in line with LCB industry peers.

"On a similar note, our concerns continue to hinge on the weakening of the Group's net NPL's to shareholders' funds ratio, which deteriorated from 20.01% as at end-FY December 2011 to 45.36% as at end-3Q FY December 2013 owing to the influx of NPLs. Further, we note any further deterioration in the group's capitalization may lead to downward rating action," RAM Ratings Lanka said.
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Dr. Senthilverl appointed to Orient Garments Board

High networth investor Dr. T. Senthilverl has been appointed as a Non Executive Director to the Board of Orient Garments Plc with effect from 10 February.

He owns a 15% stake in Orient Garments, control of which was recently acquired by Adam Investments Ltd., with a 40% stake.

Dr. Senthilverl is also a Director of many quoted companies including Vidullanka Plc, C.W. Mackie Plc, Amana Takaful Plc, SMB Leasing Plc, the Finance Plc, FLC Hydro Power Plc and Nawaloka Hospitals Plc.

He is also engaged in projection, construction and management of irrigation tanks, development, industrial turnkey projects, air and sea cargo, logistics and trading