Monday, 10 February 2014

Sri Lankan shares hit 1-month closing low; foreign selling on

COLOMBO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Sri Lankan shares fell for a fifth straight session on Monday and closed at their lowest level in a month, led by blue chips while foreign investors continued to sell risky assets as part of a selloff in emerging markets. 

The main stock index fell 0.51 percent, or 31.45 points, to 6,110.27, its lowest close since Jan. 10. It has lost 2.2 percent in the last five sessions. 

Foreign investors sold net 301.7 million rupees ($2.31 million) worth of shares on Monday, extending the foreign outflow to 3.72 billion rupees in the last three sessions. 

The bourse has seen 2.33 billion rupees of foreign outflow so far in 2014, after enjoying a net inflow of 22.88 billion rupees last year. 

"The emerging market selloff still continues and we see some major foreign funds are leaving," said a stockbroker. 

"But when the foreign selling dries off, the market will rebound as interest rates in fixed assets are very low." 

Shares in Dialog Axiata fell 2.13 percent to 9.20 rupees, while market heavyweight Ceylon Tobacco Company Plc , which posted a 27.2 percent rise in its December-quarter earnings, fell 0.43 percent to 1,247 rupees. 

Conglomerate Aitken Spence outperformed the market with a gain of 1.28 percent at 102.50 rupees after it posted a 54 percent rise in its December-quarter earnings. 

Analysts said investors have been waiting for directions from December-quarter earnings and an upcoming UNHRC session in March where Sri Lanka is facing a US-sponsored resolution for alleged human rights violations. 

Stockbrokers said investors will shrug off political risks from renewed pressure by the United States to bring a fresh resolution against Sri Lanka at the UNHRC meeting in March, because the market had been expecting the worst. 

They said local investors are active in the market after interest rates on treasury bills eased to multi-year lows, making fixed-income assets unattractive. 

The index has risen 3.34 percent so far this year, following a 4.8 percent gain in 2013. It fell in the previous two years. 

The day's turnover was 1.32 billion rupees, well above last year's daily average of about 828.4 million rupees. 

($1 = 130.7500 Sri Lanka rupees) 

(Reporting by Ranga Sirilal and Shihar Aneez; Editing by Subhranshu Sahu)

Sri Lanka exports up 6.3-pct, imports down 6.2-pct in 2013

Feb 10, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's exports rose 6.2 percent to 10.38 billion US dollars in 2013 from a year earlier and imports fell 6.2 percent to 17.99 billion US dollars, the Central Bank said.

In December 2013 exports rose 13.2 percent from a year earlier to 986.1 million US dollars with industrial products up 15.2 percent to 741.2 million US dollars, continuing trend seen in the last quarter amid a recovery in development markets.

Apparel rose 26.9 percent to 453.9 million US dollars, rubber products rose 22.4 percent to 93.9 million US dollars.

Agricultural products rose 11.4 percent to 242.1 million US dollars with tea rising 7.3 percent to 148.4 million US dollars. The central bank said higher prices helped tea, though volumes fell.

Imports in December rose 2.1 percent to 1,551.1 million US dollars with consumer goods up 25.8 percent to 302.2 million US dollars. Intermediate goods rose 6.7 percent to 936.3 million US dollars with textile falling 10.2 percent to 174.1 million US dollars.

Investment goods imports fell 22.5 percent to 165.1 million US dollars with transport equipment falling 35.4 percent to 37.5 million US dollars and building materials falling 11.3 percent to 107.9 million US dollars.

The trade deficit fell in December 12.9 percent to 565.0 million US dollars.

Annual import data had been revised down by 783 million US dollars from earlier data reported up to November ending the year at 17.9 billion US dollars, down 6.2 percent.

The trade deficit contracted 19.2 percent to 7.6 billion US dollars.

A trade deficit is caused when a country spends foreign exchange flowing through channels other than merchandise exports, such as through exports of labour (remittances) and exports of debt (government or private borrowings), foreign investments and tourism.

A lower level of Treasury borrowings or a build up foreign reserves through sterilizing foreign exchange purchases by the Central Bank could reduce imports and trim the trade gap until bank credit growth picks up.

The Central Bank said there was a 'balance of payments surplus' of 991 million US dollars during the year, higher than estimated.

Official reserves were 7.2 billion US dollars in December 2013, up from 6.8 billion US dollars a year earlier.

Sri Lanka stocks close down 0.5-pct

Feb 10, 2014 (LBO) – Sri Lanka shares end 0.51 percent down Monday with tobacco and telco stocks losing ground amid net foreign selling, brokers said.

The Colombo benchmark All Share Price Index closed 31.45 points lower at 6,110.27, down 0.51 percent. The S&P SL20 closed 14.87 points lower at 3,354.43, down 0.44 percent.

Turnover was 1.32 billion rupees, up from 1.28 billion rupees last Friday, with stocks of 157 firms closing in the red against 52 gainers.

JKH closed 50 cents lower at 228.90 rupees with 494.33 million rupees of two off market transactions contributing to 37 percent of the turnover.

The aggregate value of all off market deals accounted for 56 percent of the daily market turnover.

JKH’s W0022 warrants closed 1.90 rupees lower at 64.40 rupees and its W0023 warrants closed 2.70 rupees lower at 67.00 rupees, attracting most number of trades during the day.

Foreigners bought 180.98 million rupees worth shares while selling 482.71 million rupees of shares.

Dialog ended 20 cents lower at 9.20 rupees and Ceylon Tobacco Company closed 5.40 rupees lower at 1,247.00 rupees, contributing most to the index drop.

DFCC ended 3.70 rupees lower at 146.00 rupees and Bukit Darah ended 9.40 rupees lower at 600.60 rupees.

Sri Lanka Telecom ended 1.90 rupees higher at 40.00 rupees and Carson Cumberbatch ended 10.50 rupees higher at 357.20 rupees.

Nestle Lanka ended 10 cents higher at 2,100.10 rupees and Cargills Ceylon closed 1.40 rupees lower at 147.60 rupees.

Distilleries closed 1.60 rupees higher at 214.00 rupees.

Sri Lanka banks to benefit from consolidation: S&P

Feb 10, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's banks could benefit from a regulatory move for consolidation, despite heightened short term risks, Standard & Poor's, a rating agency said.

Sri Lanka's central bank is pushing banks and finance companies to merge, to reduce the total number in operation and make remaining ones bigger.

"We believe Sri Lanka's plan to consolidate its banks could have positive implications for the industry over the long term with the creation of fewer but larger and stronger players," Standard & Poor's credit analyst Deepali Seth-Chhabria said in a statement.

"But much depends on whether regulations will strengthen the banks and whether their capital, operations, and risk management will improve along with this consolidation."

S&P said consolidation could improve efficiency and ease the supervisory burden.

"However, banks may not get the full benefits of a merger without employee rationalization or redeployment," S&P said.

"Also, the transition could be bumpy and lead to difficulties in integration.

"In our view, raising capital to meet the proposed minimum capital levels could also be difficult for some of the smaller banks, pushing them toward consolidation.

"Moreover, the government's large fiscal deficit could limit its ability to inject capital into the banks it owns."

Seth-Chhabria said the agency had a 'stable' outlook on the banking sector.

S&P expects loan growth to pick up after a lull in 2013. But asset quality and profits are likely to be subdued with non performing loans expected to rise further in 2014 (but slower than in 2013).

A cap on penal interest rates on overdue loans, additional taxes and credit costs are likely to reduce return on average assets, S&P said.

We expect managing credit costs to remain a challenge for banks, given high NPLs and low coverage (reported loan loss reserves as a proportion of gross NPLs are at a decade's low of 34 percent.)," S&P said.

"Nevertheless, we view such performance as typical of emerging economies."

Sri Lanka's finance companies pushed into riskier business: ex-banker

Feb 10, 2014 (LBO) - Sri Lanka's finance companies, non-bank lenders that lent to riskier clients were taking on more risk due to structural changes in the financial sector, a veteran banker said.

Ranjith Fernando, former head of National Development Bank said finance companies served an important function in the economy by catering to customers who would otherwise not have got bank financing.

Risk Reward
They also paid higher interest rates to people who were willing to take the risk.

"It depends on the risk appetite the person has," Fernando told a seminar organized by Consultants 21, an organization connected to Nihal Sri Amarasekera, a public interest activist.

"People who are not happy with the 8 percent or 6 percent return on deposit in a commercial bank who want to more, and who are prepared not to go to a Bank of Ceylon or HSBC, but go to a finance company because they pay 12 or 15 percent.

When inflation was high there was a greater tendency to go for higher interest rates, he said.

The finance companies in turn financed customers who were not served by banks at a rate higher than a bank loan.

"So within the financial sector the risk return trade-off is where there is a need for financial sector institutions to cater to the risk profile of people who bank with them," Fernando said.

"So there are products and institutions in the whole financial sector that catered to them."

Finance companies also gave credit faster with less hassle and documentation, sometimes within one day.

Fernando said many start-ups started with a lease from a finance company and later became big business groups. Non-bank lenders therefore served and important function in broadening access to credit and economic growth, he said.

Analysts say all savers and investors should follow some basic steps by splitting and investing in a variety of institutions (not putting all the eggs in one basket) to avoid their savings from being wiped out by the failure of one institution.

As a person gets older their ability to recover from losses is reduced and their exposure to high-risk-high-return products like finance companies should also be cut in favour of lower risk products like larger banks, and treasury bills.

A saver can use credit ratings to gauge the risk. Within the finance company sector also some companies have investments grade ratings from around 'BBB-' upwards going into levels such as AA.

Structural Changes
Fernando said in recent years, structural changes in the financial sector had pushed finance companies into increasingly higher risk categories.

Banks started to get into areas like leasing more aggressively taking away the best and least risky customers from finance and specialized companies.

"We found commercial banks getting into leasing," Fernando said.

"They had their own leasing companies. They had departments which went aggressively into leasing, because they found, among the leasing companies clientele, there were the cream of clients who were nearly coming to banks."

Commercial banks used to give lines of credit to finance and leasing companies for their business, but later it they were cut down, Fernando said.

"Lending by the banks to leasing and financing companies was restricted," he said.

The cost of funds of banks were less, which increased competition. Finance companies were then forced to advertise heavily for business, deposits, and also pay higher rates.

"These finance companies also left their traditional areas of business and go into areas of business that they thought would give them higher rates of return," he said.

Fernando said areas like real estate were an example. Unlike banks, however they had no 'parate execution' powers to quickly re-posses assets of defaulters.

Finance companies also gave credit to short-to-medium term, but the deposits were short term, of three to six months he said.

Though longer deposits running up to several years were taken, customers expected them to paid up almost on demand, Fernando said. This also exposed financed companies to a maturity mis-match.

Therefore they ran into liquidity in case there was a sudden demand from customers. Finance companies that gave loans for property had the worst mis-matches.

Irregularities
Some companies had dealt with the problem innovatively by negotiating stand-by credit from banks to meet unusual withdrawals.

Fernando said there seemed to have been irregularities in real estate transaction such inflating purchase prices and related company lending.

Fernando said there were weaknesses in applying fit-and-proper tests to directors of finance companies, and people who should never have been directors were in finance companies.

He said regulatory weaknesses had persisted for a long time and it was not a case of the current central bank officials or the current regime.

"This problem has come from so many years, so in fairness one must be clear that we are not referring to one individual or regime."

Fernando said firms that were not licensed were taking deposits. Though the usual answer was that what could be done when people deposit in unauthorized firms, he said that was not a sufficient answer.

"The very fact of giving a license was that without a license you should not be able to do that," Fernando said.

He said it would not do to say that if a person got into a car with an unlicensed driver no one was responsible.

"In the first place an unlicensed driver should not be allowed to get onto the road."

While authorities said it was not possible to catch hundreds of people who took unlicensed deposits, Fernando said only a few needed to be taken in and dealt with to deter others.

At one time the Central Bank was taken to court by unauthorized deposit taking firm for asking questions.

Banks and finance companies usually get into trouble following collapses of credit bubbles, which are triggered by prolonged periods of low interest rates as happened in the US in 2009.

High inflation can be an early sign of impending banking troubles.

While a central bank which has policy rates can worsen a bubble by resisting higher interest rates in face of rising credit growth, credit bubbles have occurred even in the absence of central banking such in the 19th century banking panics in the US.

But the damage done in banking panics after the Fed was created such the Great Depression and Great Recession, have been greater.

Consolidation
Fernando said the Central Bank's current plans to consolidate and make bigger banks and finance companies were a good idea in principle, though there were questions over implementation and growth targets set.

"Having big banks and big finance companies and leasing companies is very good," he said. "There is no doubt. They can take shocks."

However he said some finance companies were doing well and forcing them to merge with others that were not well managed may not be a good idea.

It could be better to isolate bad companies and focus on them, he said.

There could be options like confining finance companies that were in a region and were doing well to continue with a restricted license, he said.

He said fit and proper tests must be strictly enforced.

Asking for higher levels of capital was also good, he said. Tools such as risk-based regulation could be considered, he said.

Already ratings had improved disclosure.

Fernando said there must be more efforts to educate depositors.

"We must educate the depositor," Fernando said. "I do not think the onus of having the safety of institutions should be placed on the regulator. We need a much more vigorous campaign to educate the depositor.

"A lasting solution would be to educate our public to distinguish between good and bad companies."

Page in a fix due to Cabraal

The proposed Cargills Bank project is facing various problems due to having been given a partly authorised banking operation license by the Central Bank.

The CB is yet to grant approval for Cargills Bank to open its branches at its Food City outlets island wide, althoughthe latter has already recruited experienced staff, including two managers per each branch.

The recruitment have become a waste due to the CB’s permission for Cargills Bank to have only five branches.

The CB is yet to issue the license, but the Cargills Bank has been forced to pay salaries for the staff for several months even without starting operations.

The Cargills Bank will have Ranjith Page as its chairman, and CT Holdings and Cargills will own a 30% stake, while the EPF, International Finance Corporation, a German firm, Mas Holdings, Brandix, Dilmah Tea, Lalan Rubber, Melwa, Softlogic Holdings, Asian Alliance and AIA Insurance have also invested in it.
www.srilankamirror.com

After record 2013, tea industry kicks off 2014 with NSA up 20% in January

Hot on the heels of a record year in 2013, the tea industry has kicked off the New Year with a positive start as sale averages for January at auctions have increased by Rs. 86.45 or 20.4% to Rs. 509.78 per kilo.

According to Ceylon Tea Brokers Plc, High Growns recorded Rs. 452.75 a gain of (+Rs. 20.46) compared to the same period last year whilst Medium Growns recorded Rs. 452.37 in 2014 vis-à-vis Rs. 382.84 (+Rs. 69.53) in 2013. Low Growns recorded Rs. 543.67 in 2014 vis-à-vis Rs. 430.15 (+113.52) in 2013.

CTC total average for the month of January 2014 recorded Rs. 471.43 as against Rs. 422.92 (+Rs. 48.51) in 2013.

The total Orthodox average for the month of January 2014 was Rs. 511.55 vis-à-vis Rs. 423.36 (+Rs. 88.19) in 2013.
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